Western Kentucky vs Arkansas State 11/13/2010

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Arkansas State is a heavy favorite winning 76% of simulations over Western Kentucky. Ryan Aplin is averaging 283 passing yards and 2.1 TDs per simulation and Derek Lawson is projected for 44 rushing yards and a 37% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 24% of simulations where Western Kentucky wins, Kawaun Jakes averages 1.69 TD passes vs 0.68 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.95 TDs to 0.86 interceptions. Bobby Rainey averages 142 rushing yards and 1.36 rushing TDs when Western Kentucky wins and 122 yards and 0.71 TDs in losses. Arkansas State has a 47% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 85% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ARKST -11

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